Rising Wheat Prices Threaten Cost of Bread Across Nigeria

Nigerians may soon face higher bread prices as a surge in global wheat costs places fresh pressure on the country’s already stretched food supply chain.

The price of Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat — a key ingredient in bread production — has climbed to its highest level in nearly two years. The increase is being driven largely by severe drought conditions across the United States’ Great Plains, one of the world’s most important wheat-producing regions, alongside a shift by American farmers towards more profitable crops such as corn and soybeans.

Nigeria, which relies on imports for more than 95% of its wheat supply, is particularly exposed to these global market shocks. With national demand projected to reach around 7.2 million tonnes this year, even small increases in international prices quickly feed through to higher costs for millers and bakeries.

The situation has been further complicated by rising shipping and fertiliser costs, fuelled in part by ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have added additional pressure to import expenses.

For many bakeries across the country, the squeeze leaves difficult choices: either raise the price of bread or reduce loaf sizes while keeping prices unchanged — a practice commonly known as shrinkflation.

Although Nigeria sources wheat from several regions, including Europe and the Black Sea, those markets are also grappling with adverse weather conditions, limiting the availability of cheaper alternatives.

With global pressures showing little sign of easing, consumers are expected to feel the impact in the months ahead as the cost of bread and other wheat-based foods continues to rise.